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A New Way To Forecast Enrollment

Hillel Aron | October 16, 2012



Earlier this week, Stanford economist Al Roth — known for having helped Boston, New York, and several other large districts create improved systems to match parent preferences with school choices — was awarded a Nobel prize.

On his blog, Roth recently posted an interesting link about LAUSD’s new enrollment projection system, E-Cast, headed by chief prognosticator Valerie Edwards  (District AdministrationNation’s Second-Largest District Builds Enrollment Forecasting Platform). The upshot is that in 2009, LAUSD cut its $400,000 enrollment-forecasting program named Roadshow, replacing it with an online program called E-Cast, which costs just $120,000 and LAUSD officials believe is “more effective, more immediate and more cost-effective than Roadshow, which had a 25-year run.”

Of course, enrollment projections are a notoriously difficult thing to pull off accurately. Inaccurate projections are one of the many things that LAUSD principals are angry about, according to their recent letter to the Board.

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